主页 > 书屋应用 >DPPshouldnotpursuedejureindepe >

DPPshouldnotpursuedejureindepe

2020-08-13 21:45 来源:http://www.sun550.com 栏目:书屋应用

<>While Tsai Ing-wen, chairperson of the Democratic Progressive Party, is preparing a new ten-year platform, an American friend has presented her with admirable advice. David G. Brown, a retired career diplomat who at one time served as acting chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, is urging Tsai to avoid repeating the mistakes of former President Chen Shui-bian that escalated tensions between Taiwan and China and severely strained relations with the United States.

<>

<>Brown, now adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, advises moderation, if the opposition party is thinking about the possibility of returning to government in 2012 or later. The gist of the advice is for the party to give up its insistence on de jure independence for Taiwan and commit itself to preserving the island's de facto independence by opposing closer integration with China. The change would mean leaving to other groups the pursuit of the fundamentalists' dream of an internationally-recognized independent Taiwan that has explicit state-to-state relations with China.

<>

<>Continued pursuit of de jure independence would set the party on a collision course with China that by 2020 will be a great world power, Brown points out. The party can continue to assert that Taiwan is sovereign and independent, but steps such as changing Taiwan's name, altering the sovereignty aspects of the current Constitution, or seeking membership in the U.N. organizations under the name "Taiwan" would provoke renewed confrontation with China, while Americans would likely see such actions as quixotic, dangerously provocative, and contrary to broader U.S. interests as they would threaten to embroil Washington in a conflict with Beijing.

<>

<>Assuming otherwise stable Washington-Beijing relations, Brown goes on, the U.S. administration in 2020 would distance itself from a DPP candidate espousing domestic or international action to achieve de jure independence. This could include the United States adopting a policy of explicitly opposing, rather than not supporting, independence. Washington may also suspend arms sales and quiet consultation on defense issues that it now conducts with Taipei. The continued pursuit of de jure independence would further undermine American support for the Taiwan Relations Act, which mandates the sales of defensive weapons.

<>

<>As a matter of fact, all DPP leaders, from Tsai on down, don't need Brown's advice. They all know full well what's going to happen if they continue to seek de jure independence for Taiwan. Their dilemma, however, is that they have to persist, at least in public, lest they should lose the support of fundamentalists. Without their unwavering support, the party has no chance whatsoever to return to power two years from now or in 2020.

<>

<>Hardcore independence supporters are a very small but hysterically vociferous minority. That's why the opposition party dare not revise its 1999 Resolution on Taiwan's Future with its explicit rejection of "one China." For the same reason, the party has to continue refusing to accept what is known as the consensus of 1992, under which both Taipei and Beijing are agreed that there is but one China, whose connotation can be independently and orally expressed. The tacit agreement on one China with different interpretations is the basis for dialogue between Taipei and Beijing.Chen Shui-bian was elected president in 2000, thanks to a split in the Kuomintang. He won reelection in 2004 after he had consolidated the support of independence activists by stoking the feud between native-born islanders and the "mainlanders," those Chinese migrating to Taiwan after 1945 and their offspring, and garnered enough sympathy votes cast the day after the mystery-shrouded attempt at his life rumored to have been orchestrated by Beijing. He had to keep on China-bating to win his hardcore supporters. And his would-be successors, including Tsai Ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang, simply have to follow suit. They have no choice.

<>

<>The DPP might win in 2012, if the economy got much worse. If the economy continues to improve, increasing employment for almost all the people who need it, President Ma Ying-jeou will be reelected. His DPP rival may have a chance if the economy stays just as it is now. Bill Clinton said once, "Stupid, it's the economy," whose rise or fall determines the outcome of the presidential election in the United States. So it is in Taiwan, come 2012, 2016 or 2020.

<>

<>Remember how Ma won the landslide in 2008? He was elected, despite his original sin of being the son of a mainlander Kuomintang apparatchik, solely because the great majority of the voters, islanders and mainlanders alike, were truly and absolutely fed up with the corrupt DPP government under President Chen. Ma would be voted out if he could not live up to the expectations of his supporters that he would get Taiwan out of its economic woes in two years' time.

<>

<>It's the sway voters who determine who will win. They don't mind their new president will pursue de jure or de facto independence for Taiwan, so long as the economy gets better. Ma and his Kuomintang leaders know this just as well as their DPP opposite numbers. The former have to do what they can to improve the economy to stay in power, while the latter must continue to drum up support for de jure independence to consolidate their power base and hope the economy gets worse before it gets better. Mr. Brown's good advice falls on deaf years.

<>


<>〈本文仅供参考,不代表本会立场〉


相关文章